Canadian OTT access revenue will continue to mostly benefit non-Canadian players, according to Convergence Research Group’s latest Battle for the Canadian Couch Potato report looking at OTT and television subscription trends.

Convergence says Canada is increasingly being impacted by what it terms “the OTT war” being waged by global, mainly American programmers and independent OTT providers.

While Amazon, Apple, DAZN, Disney+, Discovery+, Fubo, hayu, Netflix, and Paramount+ are going after direct-to-consumer Canadian subscriptions, Warner’s HBO/Max and Lionsgate’s Starz have long-term multi-platform deals with Bell, with NBC Universal and Warner also in multi-platform agreements with Rogers and NBCU with Bell.

Based on analysis of over 55 OTT services (encompassing 35 providers), led by Netflix, Convergence estimates 2024 Canadian OTT subscription revenue grew 15% to $4.2 billion. The B.C.-based market research firm is forecasting growth of another 15% in 2025 to $4.85 billion. It anticipates that double-digit growth rate will continue through 2027, when streaming is expected to exceed annual TV subscription revenue.

The report says Canadians paid an average of six per cent more for streaming subscriptions last year, based on a survey of the 10 leading OTT providers. It expects subscription prices to climb further in 2025, pointing out that streaming packages with ads represent a cost savings of 39% on average.

Convergence calculations suggest Canadian Cable, Satellite, Telco TV subscribers fell by four per cent in 2024, forecasting similar declines through 2027, with subscription revenue down five per cent to $6.51 billion. As of 2024 year-end, it approximates 7.35 million Canadian households (46%) did not have a TV subscription with a Cable, Satellite, or Telco TV access provider. That number is forecast to rise to 54% by the end of 2027.

“Canadian TV subscribers and access revenue are currently not seeing as steep a rate of decline as the U.S., but this could change, dependent on new or expanded OTT offers in Canada,” the report stated. “Canadian TV access providers are also broadband providers and thus also benefit from OTT. Annual Canadian residential broadband revenue has more than doubled over the last decade. 2020-2024 were banner years for Canadian residential broadband subscriber additions, we forecast 2025-2027 will continue to see robust additions but not as strong as the previous period.”