Convergence Research Group is forecasting subscription revenue declines for Canadian cable, satellite, and telco TV of five per cent on average through 2028, according to its latest report, The Battle for the Canadian Couch Potato: OTT and TV.
The report suggests subscribers to those services declined by four per cent over the past year, with revenue declining five per cent to $6.2 billion. It’s forecasting similar declines through 2028.
Published since 2003, the report is based on statistical data from both StatsCan and the CRTC, including analysis of deals and rights, strategy, subscriber & financial performance metrics (including forecasts), company interviews, annual and quarterly reports.
As of 2025, Convergence estimates 48.5% of Canadian households did not have a TV subscription with a cable, satellite, or telco TV access provider. They’re forecasting that percentage to rise to 57% by 2028.
OTT services on the other hand are forecast to continue to grow. Based on analysis of over 55 OTT services, led by Netflix, the report estimates 2025 Canadian OTT subscription revenue grew 15% to $4.8 billion. It anticipates growth of 11.5% in 2026 to $5.35 billion, with 2027 subscriber revenue forecast to exceed annual TV subscription revenue.
However, Convergence expects that rate of growth to slow down.
“We forecast total Canadian paid OTT subscriptions, which we estimate reached over 38 million YE2025, annual rate of growth will decline from high single to low-mid single digits through 2028, while both Canadian OTT household penetration and subscriptions per household grow moderately,” the report states.
Based on the 10 leading OTT providers, Convergence estimates the average Canadian price increase across the providers in 2025 was seven per cent, forecast to be higher in 2026. On average, OTT providers who offer ad-supported tiers represent a cost savings of 42% on average, compared to offers without advertising.
“Canadian TV subscribers and access revenue are currently not seeing as steep a rate of decline as the U.S., but this could change, dependent on new or expanded OTT offers in Canada. As Canadian TV access providers are also broadband providers there are benefits to facilitating OTT, annual residential broadband revenue has almost doubled over the last decade,” the report said.
It’s forecasting sustained broadband revenue growth, but not as robust as the period from 2019-24. The report says Canadian wireless service growth last year was negative, with wireless service revenue up only slightly. It expects moderate annual subscriber additions through 2028.
In the U.S. version of the report, Convergence estimated that 2025 saw a decline of 4.4 million U.S. cable, satellite, telco TV subscribers, forecasting a further decline of four million TV subs in 2026. The U.S. report suggests TV subscribers declined by nine per cent in 2025 with similar annual declines forecast through 2028. Subscription revenue declined 10% to $64 billion. 2025 U.S. OTT access (subscription) revenue grew 14% to $77.6 billion (well exceeding 2025 U.S. TV subscription revenue), and forecast 15% growth in 2026 to $89 billion.
