Canadian subscription streaming revenue grew an estimated 14% last year to $3.73 billion and is forecast to grow another 14% in 2024, according to Convergence Research’s latest Battle for the Canadian Couch Potato report looking at OTT and TV penetration.
Published annually since 2003, the report is based on an analysis of over 55 OTT services, led by Netflix.
Convergence projects double digit OTT growth rates to be sustained through at least 2026, continuing to benefit mostly non-Canadian players. Canadian OTT household penetration, subscriptions per household, and net OTT subscriptions continue to see moderate annual growth. Based on the 10 largest OTT providers, the average Canadian price increase was 12% in both 2022 and 2023, with similar increases anticipated this year.
The report estimates that 2023 saw a decline of 2.6% of Canadian cable, satellite, and telco TV subscribers, with increasing declines forecast through 2026. Revenue in those areas is estimated to have declined 3% last year to $7.2 billion and is forecast to decline a further 3% per year through 2026.
“Canadian TV subscribers and access revenue are currently not seeing as steep a rate of decline as the US, but this could change, dependent on new or expanded OTT offers in Canada,” the report noted.
As of 2023, an estimated 6.7 million Canadian households (42%) did not have a TV subscription with a cable, satellite, or telco TV access provider, which is forecast to rise to 50% by 2026.
Comparatively in the U.S., 2023 marked a decline of 7.76 million cable, satellite, and telco TV subscribers (12%), with a decline of 7.1 million TV subs forecast in 2024. Approximately 60% of households did not have a TV subscription.
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